Rainfall-Runoff Modeling and Hydrological Responses to the Projected Climate Change for Upper Baro Basin, Ethiopia

This paper presents the results of Rainfall-Runoff modeling and simulation hydrological responses under changing climate using HEC-HMS model. The basin spatial data was processed by HEC-GeoHMS imported to HEC-HMS. calibration validation model done observed hydrometeorological (1989-2018) output data. goodness-of-fit measured three performance indices: Nash Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) = 0.8, Coefficient Determination (R2) Percent Difference (D) 0.03, with values showing very good Finally, optimized has been applied simulate Upper Baro Basin projected change for mid-term (2040s) long-term (2090s) A1B emission scenarios. have shown a mean annual percent decrease 3.6 an increase 8.1 River flow in 2040s 2090s scenarios, respectively, compared baseline period (2000s). A pronounced variation is rather on seasonal basis, reaching reduction 50% spring autumn both scenarios respect base period. Generally, rainfall-runoff developed solve, complementary way, two main problems water resources management: lack gauged sites future response region general. study imply that time hydrologic cycle would most likely cause extremes. And hence, are paramount importance adaptive strategies sustainable development basin.